China Trade Fall To Lowest In More Than Two Years

Feb 13th, 2012

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China, the world’s second largest economy’s exports are down to the lowest level in January, for the first time in more than two years, which raises fresh distresses about the impact of an international slowdown on its economy.

Yesterday, the General Administration of Customs of China, said that its export fell 0.5% in January year on year and imports decreased 15.3%, which is much steeper than expected.

The Minister of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, Chen Deming, said that the exports of January cannot make them optimistic and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) warned earlier this week that deterioration in European countries could cut the country’s expansion rate almost in half this year.

A senior economist, Joy Yang from Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd, said that the weakness in China’s import and export is more than can be explained by the Chinese New Year holiday effects, pointing to mounting downside risks in the domestic economy due to cooling in the property market and investment.

The latest custom data showed a drop of 15.3% in imports in January, as compared with last year same period, was the lowest reading since August 2009, and the oversees shipment dropped by 0.5% over the same period in 2011 was the worst decline since November 2009.

Economist, Yao Wei at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, said that the latest trade data, particularly the imports data, showed that domestic demand is going down rapidly but the lending figures is more indicative of that right now.

Experts said that the Chinese legislators’ may wait to move more insistently with policy easing until next quarter, when inflation fell to more of a comfort zone and weaker economic data justifies the actions.

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